Researcher confirms that the runoff it will be difficult

A researcher in Turkish affairs confirms that the battle in the second round of the Turkish presidential elections will be very difficult, and he said: "I expect that the opposition will win new votes and the difference with Erdogan will be narrowed, and a surprise may occur with Kılıçdaroğlu 's victory in the battle."

Less than 48 hours after Sinan Ogan, the candidate of the Grandparents Alliance, announced his support for Erdogan in the run-off of the Turkish presidential elections, in a surprising move that surprised many allies and supporters of Ogan himself, the leader of the Victory Party, Umit Ozdag, announced that he would support the opposition candidate Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, in the run-off of the presidential elections that will be held on Sunday, to intensify the electoral battle.

"I call on those who voted for us in the first round to vote for Kılıçdaroğlu in the run-off so that the refugees can return to their country," Ozdag said in a joint press conference with Kılıçdaroğlu on Wednesday, May 24.

The "Victory" party won 2.23 percent of the vote in the legislative elections, while its presidential candidate, Sinan Ogan, who announced his support for Erdogan in the run-off, won 5.17 percent.

According to observers, the battle for the run-off is getting hotter, and all possibilities are very likely, especially since Erdogan has lost a lot of his popularity, which was shown by the result of the first round of the elections, as Erdogan did not run during the years of his rule in a run-off in any previous presidential elections, and he is What reveals the extent of popular anger towards his policies.

The influence of Ozdag and Ogan

The Egyptian researcher on Turkish affairs, Dr. Osama Al-Saeed, considered that the decision of Umit Ozdag, the leader of the Victory Party, to support the opposition candidate is more influential in the electoral struggle than Sinan Ogan's decision to side with Erdogan.

Osama Al-Saeed explained to ANHA’s agency that: "Ogan was bargaining with votes he did not have and sought to reap gains in the event of Erdogan's victory, while he did not have the votes for which he was speaking." Pointing out that Ogan, although he won 5% of the vote in the first round, he has no influence or directing less than 0.5% of those votes, which is an ineffective bloc, while the influence of the Victory Party is much more, given the consistency of his previous positions with his current position. With the support of the opposition, in addition to obtaining the votes of 2.23% in the parliamentary elections.

Al-Saeed believes that: "The victory party's decision will enhance the opposition's chances in the elections, and may lead to some nationalist votes leaning towards Kılıçdaroğlu." He explained: "The success of the opposition may depend more on the ability of Kılıçdaroğlu 's team to attract new votes that did not participate in the first round."

accusations against Ogan

Al-Saeed pointed out that: "Sinan Ogan's decision to support Erdogan angered many nationalist voices who supported him in the first round," and noted that many of them expressed their rejection of this choice. They asserted that what unites Oğan with the opposition is more than what unites him with Erdogan.

Al-Saeed said, "There are many accusations against Ogan that he sought to obtain subsequent gains, which is expected to raise many votes that supported him in the first round, which is in the interest of the opposition candidate."

Al-Saeed believes: "The Ogan Voices Bloc is not a solid bloc or one that responds and moves on Ogan's orders alone, but rather it is a group of parties, alliances, and individual votes with different political fancies," pointing out that: "After the dissolution of the ancestors' coalition, some parties will go towards the opposition candidate, Evidenced by the position of the victory party, the main component of the coalition.

Al-Saeed continued, "There are some voices that did not adhere to a partisanship and see Ogan's behavior as opportunistic, and believe that it was better for him to remain silent and not trade their votes, but rather give them freedom of choice opposition.”

Al-Saeed points out that the opposition candidate is now betting on the votes of those who did not vote in the first round, in addition to the idea of escalating the refugee file and economic issues in a way that attracts votes from the nationalist movement and those opposed to the Justice and Development Party.

According to the researcher, the battle in the second round will be very difficult, adding: "I expect that the opposition will gain new votes and the difference with Erdogan will be reduced, and a surprise may occur with Kılıçdaroğlu 's victory in the battle." Considering that this depends on his ability to attract new groups of young people who did not participate in the first round.

Al-Saeed believes: "Even if Erdogan wins, Turkey after the elections will not be the same as before, especially since it is the first time that the Turkish opposition has largely united." He also noted: "If Kamal Kılıçdaroğlu had been the only candidate facing Erdogan, he would have been able to win the battle in the first round."

Regarding the shortcomings, mistakes and electoral violations that marred the first round, the researcher believes: "They are procedural errors that do not greatly affect the electoral processes or their outcome." He pointed out that the move takes place if there is an impact on the integrity of the elections, and indicated at the same time that any party that loses the elections will take advantage of the reports of these electoral violations, in order to challenge the legitimacy of the elections, but the matter is only a tool of pressure only and in most cases the matter does not reach a stage the ruling to invalidate the elections, rather it is just a struggle undertaken by the loser to distort the electoral process.

Accept defeat

Regarding Erdogan's acceptance of the election results, the researcher confirmed that Erdogan is a highly authoritarian figure, especially since he has had full power in Turkey for nearly two decades, which has afflicted him with the syndrome of autism with power, as he believes that Turkey cannot survive without his presence and that there is no alternative to him but chaos. It is a disease that affects tyrants greatly, indicating that Erdogan's talk about handing over power in the event of losing the elections is nothing but misinformation, as Erdogan only sees himself in power until the last breath of his life. Therefore, if he loses the second round, he will not surrender the matter easily, as happened in the battle of the Istanbul municipal elections, when he canceled the elections completely.

T/ Satt.


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