Turkey's ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) authorities have repeatedly threatened attacks on northern and eastern Syria, and despite US-Turkish agreement on a security mechanism in the region, Erdogan's threats and his ministers are not over. The academician and researcher in Turkish affairs and the Director of the Center for Strategic Studies in Beirut, Dr. Mohammed Noureddine, these threats and the agreement reached by Ankara and Washington on the safe zone and the use of refugees by Erdogan in a dialogue with our agency are as follows:
- On the first day of joint patrols on the Syrian-Turkish border, Erdogan rejected the security mechanism agreed between Washington and Ankara. So what are Erdogan's goals?
Since the announcement of a safe zone and the contemplation of forming a joint operation room in Urfa, the agreement has not gone beyond generalities such as taking into account Turkey's security concerns, joint patrols within the north and east of Syria and the return of Syrian refugees residing in Turkey to that area. Otherwise, I believe that the two parties have disagreed and may go beyond such disagreements on how, when and how many. Therefore, Erdogan said that the safe zone has several mechanisms and applications. Erdogan wanted the agreement of principles on the safe zone to be the first step for Turkey to re-enter the region and satisfaction America in one way or another and thus be able to expand its influence in that region. But so far the United States has not responded to Erdogan, not love the Kurds and hate Turkey, but it seems that there are accounts to prevent giving the green light to Erdogan to be a full partner of the so-called safe zone.
- What is the relationship between what is happening in northern and eastern Syria and what is happening in Idlib?
As the relationship was going on east of the Euphrates and in Idlib, I think Erdogan is playing a game to put pressure on both sides (Russia and America) in understanding with each party's step in a letter to another party. The United States is on the safe zone as a means to put pressure on Russia, this is from the Turkish side, but at the same time each side whether Russia or America is trying not to lose Turkey even at a minimum, and if Russia is more cooperative and understanding with Ankara, this is because it is betting on A strategic goal is to disengage Turkey from NATO and to bet Russia on it without being sure that it will succeed in the end.
- Is there a Russian-American agreement to reduce the role of Turkey and Iran in Syria? What are the signs?
Even if there is a Russian-US agreement in Syria and it does not yet appear to be so, I think that the Iranian role in Syria is not debatable due to Turkey's relations and because of Iran's close relations with Syria, which precedes the so-called Arab Spring and precedes the Syrian crisis and precedes strong cooperation between Syria and Russia. Therefore, if there is an agreement that I think will not succeed with regard to the Iranian presence in Syria, which goes beyond the mere presence of Iranian interests in Syria.
- Erdogan has always said that he wants to resettle a million Syrians in northern and eastern Syria and threatened Europe to support this project or else it will open the door to their asylum in Europe. How has Erdogan exploited and exploits Syrian refugees over the crisis?
Erdogan's exploitation of the refugee file has long been clear, Turkey wants to use this paper for security and demography to change the reality in the Syrian border with Turkey and the entire border from the Iraqi border to the Mediterranean, he wanted to exploit them in order to naturalize many of them for use in local elections and at the same time he wants this file to be a pressure card on Europe not only for financial interests, but to extract the non-opposition of Europe in various other files of interest to Turkey and Europe, Therefore, in the absence of a final solution to the Syrian crisis, this Turkish blackmail to Europe will remain.
- Will Erdogan dare to launch attacks on the north and east of Syria without the consent of the international forces intervening in Syria, especially America and Russia?
Erdogan cannot advance in the Syrian lands unless Russia agrees in its spheres of influence or America in its spheres of influence. It is an imaginary threat, but if it happens, it will only be with tacit US approval even if there are US statements opposing it, because such an intervention requires the American response to it and also the SDF will respond to this attack and thus such an adventure will not resort to Erdogan because it is risky for him and the military operation and the situation at home. Without a Russian green light, he would not have been able to enter the Euphrates Shield, Afrin and Idlib areas, and without American light, he would not even be able to patrol the border.
- Are there concessions that Erdogan could make to America and Russia to get a green light to attack?
It is not clear what Erdogan will offer Russia and America to get a green light to attack northern and eastern Syria, First, Russia could encourage such an attack so that Turkey could enter into a conflict with the United States, but I don't think Turkey would make such a big mistake. All Erdogan can offer both sides is to promise understandings and arms purchase agreements or to coordinate with them on certain issues. The answer in general is scientifically inaccurate, so it is definitely understood, that is, each issue.
- What are the possible scenarios in the coming period, and what will the security mechanism look like?
There are no specific scenarios for the next phase, but what can be said is that Turkey can only do certain work in the eastern Euphrates region with an understanding with the United States of America. Without such understandings and in the event of Turkey's dissatisfaction with US policies in the east of the Euphrates, this means that the Turkish-American relations will continue to be tense. I believe that it is not possible for Turkey to take any military action in areas that have American influence. Therefore, it is now operating in northern Iraq in the Sinjar area, in areas where there is no US influence.