Israeli analysis after Beirut explosion: Reality of Lebanon to change

The Israeli press devoted a large area to analyzing the consequences of the Beirut explosion and its mysterious causes "until now", and within it many analysts concluded that the explosion will have consequences that will change the reality of Lebanon.

The military analyst in the Yisrael Hayom newspaper, Yoav Limor, said: "The explosion has changed the reality, and clarifying its full consequences is still far," noting that "things in the Middle East do not tend to explosion on their own, and the initial instinct was to search for the responsible for the blast," in an indication that yet, there is not inevitable that the explosion was caused by an accident although Israeli officials rushed yesterday to announce that Israel has nothing to do with the Beirut port explosion.

Limor added: "Past experiences show that Israel is very careful in choosing its targets, and more cautious in its efforts to ensure that no damage to be caused accompanying its attacks."

He continued: "The attempt to refrain from casualties does not stem from the desire not to kill innocent people, but rather from the realization that an event like this may open a cycle of blood and revenge, amounting to war, and although mistakes may occur, but an event of this magnitude with thousands of injured and immense damage exists out of the basket of operations carried out by Israel in public and in secret."

Limor noted that the fear in Israel in the first minutes was: "The possibility that Hezbollah would accuse Israel," but Hezbollah was quick to explain through media outlets in Lebanon that Israel had nothing to do with the explosion, and it is possible that this clarification stems from the fact that Hezbollah was also not related to the incident, or that it wanted to banish evidence against itself."

Limor pointed out that "the Israeli army is following with interest the reports issued in Beirut, but it does not reduce the level of alert at the borders," in anticipation of a retaliatory attack carried out by Hezbollah after the killing of one of its members in Damascus two weeks ago and more.

But he estimates that: "The explosion may confuse Hezbollah cards because it comes at a time when Lebanon is suffering from severe health (Corona) and economic crises, and in the wake of this event which appears to be the most dangerous in the history of the state, the Lebanese public will have less desire for increased security tension as a result of a whimsy of Hezbollah, and while there is a clear Israeli warning in the background that any targeting of Israelis will lead to targeting the infrastructure of the country of Lebanon, it is expected that internal pressure will increase on Hezbollah in order to refrain from dangerous and adventurous steps.

In the same vein and with a different estimate, the Arab affairs analyst for Haaretz, Zvi Perel, considered the explosion  "a shattering message to Iran."

He said: "The explosion at the Beirut port may lead to a change, at least in public and civil discourse, and perhaps among a section of the political command," and that "Hezbollah opponents may demand the removal of its weapons and ammunition depots from populated areas, but Hezbollah will oppose this because carrying out such an order would reveal it to an Israeli target.

He also expected that the Lebanese government and Hezbollah would make an effort to prove that the explosion was caused by "the natural wear of explosive materials or because of heat," and considered that "even if the talk was about an accident, an explosion of this magnitude in the central port of Lebanon would send a shaking message to Iran which announced a month ago its intention to send aid ships to Lebanon, including oil tankers, and a ship carrying a generating station that supplies Beirut with electricity ... but if these ships arrive they will not carry oil, wheat and medicine, but rather weapons, ammunition and missile pieces as well."

He stated: "Except for the political consequences the Beirut port which is run by the Lebanese state is one of the important sources of income for the state treasury, and the disruption of work at the port during a period when Lebanon needs any dollar will contribute to a political fire that threatens the stability of the state."

On another point, the Israeli analyst at the Israeli Channel 12, Nir Dvori, expected today, Tuesday, that there are two possible scenarios at stake after the massive explosion that rocked Beirut.

He said: "The first scenario is that the massive catastrophe that caused heavy losses in the Lebanese state will not allow" Hezbollah "to implement its threats to avenge Israel and risk a military confrontation."

The other scenario, according to Dvory, is: "Such a tragic event could greatly increase instability in Lebanon, and this instability may be reflected on Israel - starting with Hezbollah which will try to divert attention from the disaster and divert the wave toward Israel, or the Lebanese citizens who will reach the border with Israel and ask for help."



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