In helpless Iraq… Government must consist of 3 contradictory qualities

​​​​​​​The formation the Iraqi government is complicated to a great extent, as it is not only related to competition between Iraqi forces over political bags, but the Iraqi political field is witnessing a strong struggle between several parties, and let us be more accurate, as the conflict is taking place between 3 main external and internal parties.

It is well known that the formation of the federal Iraq came with an imported constitution after it collapsed militarily in 2003, and although the fall of Iraq as a Sunni-Ba’athist state that is fiercely hostile to Iran, generates a contradictory idea about our understanding of the policy of the United States of America towards Iran, as any follower of the situation will think that if Washington was really serious about confronting the Islamic Republic of Iran.

Then why one of the fiercest regimes that were a stark bulwark against Iranian interference was fought an 8-year war in the 1980s, he asks: Wasn't Saddam Hussein supposed to receive support from the United States of America claiming to be A stand against Iranian expansion? There are 3 directions to respond to this question, one of them may say that Saddam Hussein and his regime was essentially an American agenda, and it was liquidated after the end of its services and its departure from the American voluntary to some extent, or another and unexpected direction for many, indicating that the aggressive relationship between Iran and America is not as we see it outward, but there is an exchange of roles between them, and that each of them benefits from the other to interfere in the affairs of the Middle East countries. Perhaps this is the main element in the Saudi-American relationship on the economic level. As for the third and closer approach to reality is that the American states seek to control the affairs themselves without creating an alternative instead of its existence as a real or even proxy force.

In any case, regardless of the Americans ’position on the politics of the Middle East’s regimes, a country like oil-rich Iraq is a geographic that raises the instinct of major industrial countries and prepares them as a source of its economy for decades, so it can be said that the first and last American concern in Iraq is its wealth and nothing else So, at that time (that is, before the collapse of Saddam), it was forced to approach the Shiite forces in addition to exploiting the Kurdish ambition to activate the scheme of geographical and economic control over the region, away from the Sunni forces that did not calm down quickly after 2003 and remained on the line of fire in al-Fallujah and other areas of Anbar to avenge the previous regime

But the most difficult task was winning the sympathy of some Shiite parties and creating a rift between them and the Shiites of Iran, and it has been relatively successful in implementing this plan. Perhaps the differences between the Iraqi Shiite forces distributed between the West and Iran are the best evidence of the success of the relative mission, so the Shiite forces are no longer able to unify its ranks, and can no longer complete even the parliamentary quorum unless it drags another party to it (the Kurds or Sunnis) and both of them belong to the American states, as Washington has restrained the Sunnis by creating groups in its ranks with "terrorist" labels to be eradicated politically, and be Forces extracted from this results (Alliance of Powers Sunni Iraqi, led by Nujaifi, Jubouri, and al-Khanjar as a model), intellectually ready to bow, while the two main Kurdish forces,  Kurdistan National Union and Kurdistan Democratic Party, have shared spheres of influence under the Washington Agreement on September 17, 1998  

When we said that the United States of America has relatively succeeded in causing a rift in the Shiite ranks, this does not mean that Iranian influence has ended in Iraq, although it has weakened a lot, especially after the assassination of the Quds Force Commander Qassem Soleimani in Baghdad early this year, but Iran still retains with many political and military keys in Iraq, in addition to the impossibility of controlling the vast borders between the two countries, in addition to the difficulty of Iraq giving up Iran as its largest border port, and the importance of this appeared in the total sanctions imposed by Washington on Iran, as the United States still exempt Iraq from Penalties for dealing with a Iranian gas and energy

As a result, the conflict is still ongoing and the influence of the two parties ’interference with their power is very clear on the Iraqi political process. Therefore, the failure to form a government continues. The Shiite forces that are supposed to assume the presidency of the government according to the Tony Blair Agreement, who distributed power in the form of (a Shiite government - a Sunni parliament - the presidency of the Kurdish Republic) cannot take their decisions of their own free will in light of the distinction they live in, and divided between the loyalties of Iran and America, and even if the Shiite forces gather in Iran's favor, there is two additional cards in the hands of America, namely the Sunnis and the Kurds, constitute another threat to Iran and the forces loyal to it, such as supporting the plan of dividing Iraq into 3 states, for example.

This is with regard to external interference. As for internally, a new player has recently emerged on the Iraqi scene to hinder the formation of any government that is not independent, because its fate will be similar to the fate of the government of Adel Abdul Mahdi and the fate of Muhammad Tawfiq Allawi, who tried to succeed him.

The Iraqi people reached the summit of the eruption after violating the most basic of their rights and plundering their wealth by the corrupt class on the one hand, and divided into the agendas of countries on the other hand. The people no longer accept foreign interference, and this was shown in the slogans that appeared in the Iraqi protests, that resulted in killing and wounding thousands of victims, as it was the opposition of the two influential parties (Iran and America), which means that the formation of a new government in Iraq despite the passage of more than 3 months since the resignation of Abdul-Mahdi, will not be easy to pass unless it has the support of the protesters

In conclusion, whatever the scenarios and personalities involved in the Iraqi political process, in the event that the next candidate to form the government wants to achieve success, it must exceed a large balloon of the popular impression, and be friendly to Iran and a wall to it, and at the same time it must be subject to American control over its wealth, then and in Almost impossible formula will have three contradictory qualities according to the above reading.

(T/S)

ANHA


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