Idlib's escalation is waiting for Russian-American way out

The Syrian professor and the academician Mahaib Salha said that the understandings that resulted from the agreement of Astana from the beginning were intended to divide Syria into sectarian and national cantons. He stressed that Russia is practicing carrot and stick policy with Turkey, where the stick in Idlib and the carrot in northwest Syria.

 The so-called 'demilitarized zones 'of Syria, according to the Russian-Turkish understandings based on the results of the Astana meetings, witness a violent escalation and bloody battles, despite Russia's promotion of a truce and a ceasefire in these areas.

The opinions of observers and local people on the nature of what is happening and the fate of these areas between the existence of serious disagreement between Russia and Turkey may result from a direct confrontation, and that what is happening is to pass a new deal at the expense of the Syrian people.

To try to understand the course of events across the so-called demilitarized zones and to understand their links to regional and international relations, the Hawar News Agency counducted an interview  with Syrian writer and academician Mahib Salha.

Turkey has not fulfilled its commitments to its partners in Astana, which occupied the Syrian territories

Salha, at the beginning of his speech to our agency touched upon the backdrop of the recent escalation, saying: " the understandings of Astana and Sochi is included securing a buffer zone free of heavy and medium weapons, to secure the road of Aleppo Damascus and the road of Aleppo Latakia, and securing the Russian interests in the Syrian coast, the role or power of Jabhat al-Nusra Organization, which prevent any political understandings of the Syrian issue, but Turkey has not been able to carry out its commitments  which has occupied Afrin, Azaz, Jrablos, Marea and al-Bab".

"In light of this situation, it is clear that Russia's patience with Turkey has been ended, and so its movement has limited military operations at the beginning and then extensive operations, thinking that it change Idlib's equations and exert pressure on Turkey to carry out its commitments,  this coincided with the US presuueres on Turkey in order to abandon the deal of the Russian missile system S-4oo. "


Russia is pursing carrot-and-stick policies with Turkey


The Regime and Russia's forces were unable to modify the maps on the ground in Idlib and in the northern Hamah countryside because of the fierce fighting there by the Islamic groups and Turkey's support for them with information and specific weapons, forcing Russia to demand the truces review it calculations and give the oprtuinty to Turkey  to settele the Russian missile deal. "

On the Russian promotion of understanding with Turkey Salha said

"Russia has a dual policy, on the one hand did not stop coordination with Turkey in the files of Idlib and the missile system and northwestern Syria on the border with Turkey, on the other hand is trying to pressure them through Idlib file and Northa and east of Syria, hence the ongoing war in Idlib is a proxy war, and as long as the Russian and Turkish parties do not lose in the game Idleb, the agreement between them is much stronger, and the issue is a matter of time linked to the progress, he sees the final settlement, will be by an American-Russian way out.

Russia seeks to secure two vital routes and cut off the Qatari and Iranian gas lines

"The objective of Russia is to secure the vital routes of Aleppo, Damascus and Aleppo-Latakia to connect Syria's useful areas from the north to the coast and to the south, to secure its interests in Hameimim and Tartous, and in the Syrian desert from the east to secure its vital interests," Alha said about the exploitation of natural resources of oil, gas and phosphate production and transport and marketing, and cut off the lines of gas Qatari and Iranian competitors of Russian gas towards Turkey and the Syrian coast.

"Therefore, Russia will remain committed to the buffer zone and will do everything possible, militarily and politically, to obtain it. In this context, it is not unlikely that Russia will expand its military operations in Idlib and Northern countryside, but it will maintain a natural balance imposed there which will prevent the esclation with Turkey and to be the mediator between Turkey and Damascous.

so it is not expected that Russia will allow a comprehensive war between Turkey and Syria in the Idlib region and the north-west. "


Tal Refaat point of intersection of the intrests between the parties and will not witness war

"What matters to Turkey here is that the conflict in Idlib will not affect its influence in the areas it occupies and will do everything possible to prevent the deterioration of its relationship with Russia that it gave in Syria, but this does not prevent Russia from using all means of pressure on Turkey to serve its agenda in the north of Syria, while at the same time does not prevent Turkey from responding or pressure on Russia to serve its agenda also, in this context the Russian military movements and redeployments in the region come and moved joint patrols with YPG of the Kurds in the area of al-Shahba,"Salha added.'

Salha considers that the Tal Rifaat area is considered one of the most stratigic regions in Syria where the interests of the partners in Astana intersect. Each party uses it to pressure other parties to achieve temporary political goals. Iran regards  as a protector of Nebul and Zahra, and losing them means losing Aleppo. Turkey regards them as protector of Afrin and a condition for their stability. Russia is using it to negotiate with its partners to gain additional benefits to protect its interests in al-Sahel, eastern Hama and Homs, and the United States in northeastern Syria is closely monitoring the situation to prevent the deterioration of the situation in northwestern Syria. "



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