Failure of the southern deal is a troubling example for Syria, Turkey transfers conflict to Caucasus

Reports said that the chaos and the continuing escalation in southern Syria two years after the signing of the so-called Southern Deal is a model for a future Syria, while observers considered the outbreak of war operations between Azerbaijan and Armenia a "valuable" opportunity for Turkey to transfer its tension with Russia from the Middle East to the Caucasus, in When the Turkish lira pays the price of Ankara's foreign interventions.

On Tuesday morning, Arab newspapers touched upon the situation in southern Syria, in addition to the escalation between Azerbaijan and Armenia, and the Turkish economic situation.

Al-Sharq al-Awsat: The "Southern Deal" ... a model of concern for Syria

The Arab newspapers published this morning on the Syrian issue covered several topics, the most prominent of which was the situation in the south of the country. In this context, Al-Sharq Al-Awsat newspaper said: “Two years after the signing of the 'Southern Deal', the regions of southern and southwestern Syria seemed far from stability amid a Russian conflict - An Iranian is in control, which has led analysts to believe that it is a worrying model for "the Syria of the future."

And added, "The" Southern Deal "allowed the control of the Syrian government forces and the symbols loyal to the regime over the countryside of Daraa and Quneitra, according to an American-Russian agreement and the blessing of Jordan and Israel. The agreement included the surrender of the opposition, while the expulsion of the" non-Syrian forces, "which is a term describing non-local organizations. Pro-Iranian, from the border areas bordering Jordan and the disengagement line in the Golan.

But two years after the deal, violence is still dominant in the region, which has not enjoyed security and stability, with the escalation of mutual assassinations that have recently affected pro-Russian organizations, in addition to the Israeli raids on "Iranian sites" that have changed their presence since the conclusion of the deal.

Al-Arab: Turkey is transferring tension with Russia from the Middle East to the Caucasus

Regarding the tension between Armenia and Azerbaijan, Al-Arab newspaper said: “The Turkish position regarding the war between Armenia and Azerbaijan confirms the expectations of many analysts that the conflict will be exploited by Ankara in its favor in order to transfer its battles with Moscow from the Middle East region, specifically from Syria, to the Caucasus of strategic importance. "

The statements of the Armenian ambassador to Russia, Vardan Taghanyan, show that “the militants who were expelled from Syria by Turkey are taking part in the hostilities in the Karabakh region, how President Recep Tayyip Erdogan spares no effort until he provokes Russia, wherever exist.

On the other hand, Erdogan sought, as usual, to float the crisis in the Caucasus and demanded that Armenia, its historical opponent, withdraw from areas that it had controlled in Azerbaijan, and said that it is now forced to solve its problems on its own will it or not, but Turkey will continue to stand by it with all capabilities.

While the Turkish president did not directly address whether his country is playing an active role in the conflict at the present time, as Armenia says, while Azerbaijan denies these allegations, the Armenian ambassador to Moscow said that there are four thousand mercenaries who came from Syria and were trained in hard-liner's camps and transferred. To Azerbaijan.

Russia and Turkey know that they need to be prepared for any threat from the other side by building regional military relations, and as a result Ankara wants to impose its strategy that extends from Syria to the Caucasus, but this is difficult to achieve politically, given that it is unlikely that Moscow will allow the passage of Turkish military equipment, One of the solutions to completely avoid the problem is to use the Caspian Sea as a transit route to transport mercenaries from Syria to Azerbaijan.

Although there is harmony between the military priorities of both Russia and Turkey in Syria, the two sides have been witnessing in tension for months there, as the main point of disagreement between them revolves around the international road M4, which Moscow wants to accelerate its opening to start a trade exchange process, in addition to withdrawing Turkish forces from the south, and confined it to a 35-kilometer-deep belt.

While Ankara wants to decide the fate of the areas included in the Sochi understanding, which the Syrian regime penetrated into late last year and early this year, placing them under the protection of security forces that Ankara and Moscow are supervising to prepare, in order to obtain greater gains in the Idlib governorate, but Russia insists on stabilizing the current situation. And the regime forces continue to control these areas.

With the interest of the two sides in the ongoing conflict in Syria, both of them are working to secure an alternative path for their military forces, especially the Russian forces, to protect the Bashar al-Assad regime, the transfer of the battle to the Caucasus seems logical, and indeed the Stratfor Center has in recent years monitored interesting movements around the Caspian Sea and across the Caucasus Mountains.

And while Ankara wants to increase its political activity in the region from the gateway of military support, and from its commercial dealings with every Caucasus country it is allied with, it will surely face significant obstacles along the way. Russia is unlikely to loosen its hold on Armenia by allowing the Turkish support for Azerbaijan.

And while the conflict that erupted between Armenia and Azerbaijan last weekend, with the Ministry of Defense in Azerbaijan announcing that it had launched a counterattack along the entire front line in Karabakh and the army’s announcement of the destruction of 12 anti-aircraft systems of the Armenian Air Force, it was nothing more than a conflict between two neighbors. However, it carries with it geo-strategic interests that are important to Russia and Turkey.

Al-Bayan: Turkish lira collapse due to Ankara's foreign interventions

Regarding internal Turkish affairs, Al-Bayan newspaper said: “Yesterday, the Turkish lira recorded a new decline, achieving record levels against the dollar, the euro and the pound sterling, despite the sudden interest rate hike last week aimed at stopping the collapse of the Turkish currency, in light of fears of Turkey's increasing interference in the worsening conflict. Quickly in the Caucasus region between Armenia and Azerbaijan, where Ankara became involved in this conflict by sending Syrian mercenaries.

"The Turkish lira fell 1.6 percent and was on a path leading to its worst day since early August, when the latest wave of selling began to damage the currency, which lost half its value in less than three years, and Ankara is sending its forces into a number of neighboring countries and the region, which raises the of the risks of any investment in Turkey because of the conflicts it is in.



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