​​​​​​​ Escalation in Idlib peaked … What are the scenarios of events?

Military and political events in Syria reached their climax yesterday, after the failure of the Russian-Turkish talks, which were followed by a field escalation on the ground in conjunction with the presence of an American delegation in Ankara, and through that what are the scenarios of events?

Yesterday, the Russian-Turkish talks failed to calm the tension in Idlib, and after that the field axes ignited.

This was followed by mercenary groups, with direct Turkish support, launching attacks on the regime's positions in Neirab, during which a regime plane was shot down, but this was not long enough for the regime forces to return and control the area.

This was also followed by the regime's control of the M5 road linking Damascus and Aleppo, for the first time since 2012, and it also controlled the Khan al-Asal neighborhood, which in 2013 caused the chemical weapons file in Syria to be raised.

What are the signs of a scramble of events?

This stampede of events indicates two things, the first is the insistence of Russia and the regime to complete the confrontation, and the second is the depth of the crisis that Turkey is going through after it escalated a lot and sent large military reinforcements.

What are the options for Turkey?

Turkey has all difficult options, first either to go military action against the Syrian regime, which is not acceptable to the Russians, not even the Americans.

The second is agreement with Russia, which means accepting its loss and moving to a new agreement on Russian terms.

The third option is to return to the American embrace, which was aimed at James Jeffrey’s visit to Turkey.

Here, too, the Turkish position seems more difficult for several reasons. First, America cannot support Turkey outside the framework of NATO, and this is difficult in light of the existence of a dispute between prominent countries in the alliance, such as France and Turkey.

 Second, there is a dispute between America and Turkey over Syria, and this is what the US delegate to NATO said explicitly yesterday, when she said we support Turkey against the regime forces, but we do not agree with all its actions in Syria.

So the Turks are now in a position they are not envious of, and in what choice they will take, they must concede.



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