Erdogan reveals his real intentions .. Occupation, demographic change

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has returned to threat and occupy northern and eastern Syria, a few hours after joint patrols between in Gire Spi and Serkaniya, but Erdogan's words, as every time revealed his real intention to occupy the region and falsify his claims about the north and east Syria and its components and considering them "terrorists".

Erdogan claimed that the region, with its cities and countryside, should be safe so that one million people could be accommodated in the area. But basically this is one of the safest areas in Syria, except for periods when ISIS mercenaries attacked them. It is interesting to note that Erdogan mentioned the cities and the countryside. We all know that on August 7, the United States and Turkey reached an agreement on a security mechanism that takes into account Ankara's fake fears, while at the same time takes into account fears of northern and eastern Syria residents of a possible Turkish attack.

Erdogan does not want this region to remain safe, and he wants to occupy it as he did in Afrin in early 2018 through a despicable deal, which was a Russian and Turkish, amid the weakness of the regime that lost the will and its decisions are in the hands of Tehran and Moscow. He does not like the democratic system proclaimed by the peoples of northern and eastern Syria, because all dictators fear the development of democracy and popular will. All they care about is the chair of power, and therefore he seeks by all means to undermine the agreement to launch attacks on the region.

The reason for Erdogan's intention to occupy the region is that the majority of its population is Kurdish, and the security mechanism being worked on with Washington and agreed with the SDF prevents him from entering the cities, thereby his occupation plans and his intention to change the demography of the region failed.

The Autonomous Administration  has openly stated that it is ready to receive Syrians from the north and east of Syria, but on condition that they are not those who committed crimes against civilians, especially since many of the ISIS affiliates from the region fled to Turkey after the area was liberated by the SDF. The Autonomous Administration fears that the arrival of these people will help the emergence of IS again after it was eliminated geographically.

The other thing is, Turkey occupies a border strip from Jrablos to Azaz and al-Bab. When Erdogan occupied this area in 2016, he said that he would bring the Syrians back there, but did the Syrians return? Never, those who wanted to return were from mercenary families. Of course, the Syrians do not want to return to any area occupied by Turkey because of the security chaos and kidnappings and killing that occur daily.

Erdogan always threatens European countries to open doors to immigrants if he does not receive support from them. Erdogan said Frankly, "if they do not help me establish a safe area in northern and eastern Syria, I will open the doors to immigrants again to Europe. Erdogan is threatening everyone around him to get what he wants."

On the other hand, Erdogan's threats cannot be seen in isolation from what is happening in Idlib, since Erdogan agreed with Putin on September 17, 2017 to establish a demilitarized zone with a depth of 15-20 km, including parts of Idlib, Hama, Aleppo and Lattakia, to remove mercenaries from them and to open the roads. Turkey was supposed to implement the agreement but failed, which prompted the Syrian regime and Russia to start a military operation since April 30 this year and took control of the northern countryside of Hama and parts of the southern countryside of Idlib.

After losing  the Turkey-backed mercenaries which were used as a front for Turkey, Erdogan went to Moscow in late August and made a deal with Putin that would include the dissolution of Jabhat al-Nusra and its Rescue Government, but sooner or later Russia will launch attacks on that region if Erdogan does not fulfill his obligations.

Therefore, by threatening northern and eastern Syria, Erdogan seeks to secure a foothold in this region, especially since the Turkish presence in the fourth and last de-escalation zone (Idlib) will be discussed at length in the meeting that brings Erdogan with Putin and Rohani on September 16 in Ankara.

 Erdogan's threats can also be explained internally, Erdogan's old comrades, who brought him to power, began to split from his party, and a number of them plan to form new parties, which threatens Erdogan and his party to stay in power during the elections to be held in 2023, in addition to the deepening economic crisis inside the country and high unemployment and inflation.  Externally, Ankara is suffering from strained relations with its NATO allies, as a result of the negative Turkish policies in the region on the interests of the United States and European allies, as well as strained relations with major Arab countries represented by Saudi Arabia, Egypt and the United Arab Emirates, because of Turkish support for the Muslim Brotherhood, which is now as a "terrorist" group.

Turkey is mired in the quagmire of the Syrian crisis and the policy of pursuing the contradictions between Russia and America is no longer able to achieve what satisfies Erdogan's ambition to restore his old Ottoman dreams.

Russian President Putin cornered Erdogan in Idlib and put pressure on him.

  Erdogan no longer has a lot of cards in his hands to offer at the Astana meetings and the tripartite summits that bring him together with his Russian and Iranian counterparts.

The United States is unwilling to attack its interests throughout the Middle East in order to satisfy Erdogan after he was charged with implementing moderate Islam in the Arab region.


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