Crowds, integration of mercenaries, regional movements... What is planned for in Idlib?

The warring parties in Idlib are making intensive moves, the foremost of which is the Turkish side which talks about understanding with Russia and fighting the mercenaries of Tahrir al-Sham, but it sends more military reinforcements, while due to the escalation of the dispute among Astana guarantors, they held meetings and several contacts, but without announced results, what is going on in Idlib?

Turkey continues to send more military reinforcements despite the ceasefire reached by both Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan on March 5.

Whereas, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, the number of Turkish machineries that entered the Syrian territory since the start of the new ceasefire amounted to 2,695, in addition to thousands of soldiers.

Thus, the number of trucks and military vehicles that have reached the so called De-escalation zone during the period from February 2 to date increased to more than 6,100 Turkish military trucks and vehicles, loading tanks, personnel carriers, armored vehicles, mobile guard booths, bullet-proof and military radars, while the number of Turkish soldiers who deployed in Idlib and Aleppo during this period reached more than 10,300 Turkish soldiers.

Turkey has failed in terms of conducting joint military patrols with the Russian side, as defined in this ceasefire agreement due to the opposition of Tahrir al-Sham mercenaries to these patrols.

The Russian pressure on Turkey forced the latter to collide with the mercenaries of Tahrir al-Sham who refused to open the international road M4, but this collision did not last long and ended with negotiations between Turkey and the mercenaries.

"Turkey has no choice but to implement the consequences"

To read these developments, the political analyst and researcher Salim Ali from Moscow spoke to Hawar news agency and said: "Despite all the evasions of Turkey, the Turkish side has no choice but to implement the part that is due to be implemented because the consequences of non-implementing it may lead to repeating the scenario of Damascus - Aleppo road."

Turkish attempt to rearrange mercenaries and merge them into groups called moderate

Ali added, "But here, we must consider that the Turkish actions are taking place in the context of the policy of rearranging the armed groups' situations, especially Jabhet al-Nusra and its allied groups represented by attempts to merge them with groups of the so-called moderate, and these attempts are opposed by the foreign terrorist groups that Turkey entered into the Syrian territory such as Turkistan Islamic party and Guardians of Religion, as it may pose an existential threat to its members who are alien to the Syrian social fabric."

"What Turkey is doing must be viewed with suspicion"

The political researcher and analyst believes, "In general, we have to consider everything that Turkey is doing in Idlib and throughout the Syrian north with suspicion. It works to bring about a demographic change in the areas under its control and repeat the scenario of the dissolution of Iskenderun from the Syrian geography. This of course will lead to more rounds of military clashes with the Syrian side and its Russian and Iranian successors."

""Washington wants the eruption of a Russian-Turkish clash in Idlib

During the recent escalation in Idlib, the American position escalated through the statements only but without anything tangible on the ground. About this, Ghadi Sari, the expert at the Middle East Affairs at Chatham House Research Institution said, "The American position on Idlib events is divided into two parts, a section that has a relationship with the policy of the United States and its communication with the Syrian opposition, so that it supports by attitudes this position regarding confronting the regime and not in a field and logistical manner. Therefore, the talk is always about the civilians and defending them in Idlib, but they are aware of the existence of a strong control for Jabhet al-Nusra. Thus, on the issue of Idlib, their focus is what others are doing. The American position is to leave the Russian and Turkish sides clashing with each other."

"Russia and Turkey cannot take thoughtless steps"

Regarding the possibility of a deal, Sari said, "I do not currently think that the U.S. administration has boarded any deal on Syria, especially since the American president always seeks to withdraw from Afghanistan and Syria, but there are no real changes that allow today to change any of the existing "statics", and the thing that happens in Idlib may affect the situation in Syria, but I do not think that any of the players will bear the issue of changing the game in a way that attracts others to a conflict they do not want to enter into."

He concluded his speech, "Therefore, if the Turkish or the Russian made any unplanned step that would led the American to lose his position in Syria, the response would be as strong as President Trump's stance on the Iranian file, which affects oil prices, and this is what matters to the American administration."


Other news