Dr. Iyad Majali, researcher in international relations and Iranian affairs - Mutata University - Jordan
The pace of interactive measures within the American strategy context towards Syria is accelerating, causing real cracks in the nature of alliances among most countries and their breaches in the region, paving the way for the game of the alliances of the United States to compel the countries to engage in, having affected significantly on regional activities and strategic transformations and their repercussions on the nature existing alliances, in addition to a number of changes on the political and military levels in the Middle East, which imposes constants on them towards the way to deal with the urgent developments that ravaged the region, where it appears to the observer in the political scene that Syria is the focus of the upcoming regional-international conflict between Washington and its allies in the region, and Iran, Russia and China on the other hand, especially since there is a fertile environment for the growth of regional and international tensions along the Syrian political geography, and a state of political instability, which remains a constant sight in the diaries of the Syrian crisis.
The U.S Caesar’s Act regarding the situation in Syria, reflects one of the aspects of the American policy in Syria, even though confusion still surrounds Washington approach towards the Syrian file compared to the field developments, as Moscow appears to be the only one in control of the game’s threads, while the American administration continues to dodge the policies of domination and pressure on all parties, an act that justifies it within the rationale for humanitarian action, protecting Syrian civilians through the imposition of severe economic sanctions and restrictions on the political authority in Damascus and its supporters. But the ambiguity that surrounded this law was associated with prevarication, and confusion is not clear in the U.S. strategy in Syria, where the mood seems confused compared to the strategies of Russia, Turkey, Iran in Syria and towards the conflict's parties especially as the contents of the provisions of this Act aim to hold the Syrian leadership and its allies responsible for crimes in the current conflict.
However, the scene with all its strategic transformations confirms that the Caesar’s Act is a Syrian phenomenon whose objectives and content targets all the involved countries of the world in the affairs of Syria or those that consider later to engage in any financial or economic operations in Syria. It is an actual translation for the restrictions that put limits to the aspirations of Moscow, Tehran and Damascus to persuade the world, especially the EU to join the efforts of rebuilding Syria, in addition to besieging the political settlement of Russia with all its military and political tracks, starting from establishment of the Constitutional Committee. Therefore, the U.S. administration seeks to act as quickly as possible because it completely affects the Syrian economy by severely separating it from any international monetary institution, especially the IMF and the World Bank, preventing the implementation of any private and legitimate initiatives in the country.
However, this Act sends a political signal that Washington has general international repercussions that will prevent Syria from having normal relations with countries of the world and going back to the Arab League, and freezing the efforts of normalization to bridge the rift in Syrian-Gulf relations, as well as returning to the Arab regional system. This stalemate is due to Damascus failure to provide any indications for limiting the Iranian influence in a way that excludes the Arabs from the option of normalization. This Act came to put an end to what Damascus and Moscow were waving from the fait accompli of the military victories of the Syrian army and its allies with cover of the Russian Air Force, besides that the most important messages that this Act carries to the international community, specifically about the position of the European Union has been reiterating the call to implement a fair political process in which the opposition participates as a condition for any European involvement in financing the reconstruction of Syria and the return of refugees. Caesar's Act requires, through its political messages, that Russia returns to adherence to the international conditions and standards set forth in the United Nations resolutions, as well as in the references of the political process in Geneva.
Therefore, I find in the readings of this Act an aspect of delirium and confusion in its foreign policies, as it constitutes an emotional and not studied aspect in dealing with the Syrian case, which represents contrast behavior to international legitimacy, and makes it one of the most manifestations of the economic terrorism on the international scene. This hegemony is exploited for political agendas as another complement to the military aggression, as it does not yet constitute any pressure to stop the military plans and field operations of the Turkish ally and Erdogan's expansion projects in northeastern Syria. It is a substandard law that can address the Syrian crisis with its humanitarian, political and economic side, and it is a scenario to strangle the Syrian economy to adapt the Syrian people and its government and oppress them with more suffering, and the American administration invested in order to pass it as weak pretexts and excuses to impose tough and harsh sanctions to maintain the state of instability and isolation of the Syrian state whose government and people refuse to follow the American path, and refuse to give up their right to their occupied land in the occupied Syrian Golan.
The essence of the current conflict in the region is based on the terms “strategic rivalry” and “multilateral deterrence.” This conflict heralds catastrophic results, especially since the American strategy recognizes that Syria has become a sphere of influence for Russia, China and Iran, but there is a Western, American-European feeling that a restriction should be made. Limiting the continuation of this alliance, and preventing a strong Russian-Turkish alliance contradicts Ankara's presence in NATO, in addition to Russia's pursuit of influence in Iraq and its close economic relations with the Arab Gulf and Egypt where Caesar’s Act comes as a translation of the American political position on the Syrian file, and it is considered as Western cards of pressure on Moscow and Tehran to reconsider their behavior in Syria because it will increase the Syrian financial system’s crisis in obtaining liquidity, while extending the decision to introduce humanitarian aid to the opposition’s cell and militia areas in Syria via Turkey and Jordan without the consent of the Syrian government, and in the case of adhering to the U.S. conditions for the lifting of sanctions, which are of five years renewable, they are undoubtedly considered impossible given the structure and nature of the Syrian political authority, as these conditions are to stop using the airspace and the release of political detainees in the enabling international observers to conduct prison tours, as well as lifting the blockade on the Syrian areas, and the Syrian army and its allies, stopping targeting medical and residential facilities and markets, and allowing the return of civilians to their homes, in addition to bringing the captured war criminals of armed organizations and militia mercenaries to the international justice. This indicates that the American strategy in Syria does not aim to implement justice against the perpetrators of war crimes in Syria, as shown by the provisions of the Caesar Act, which took three years to pass. It is undoubtedly an American pressure card that wants a political solution in Syria, and that the political process be completed according to the decisions of Geneva, and the United Nations has agreed to shift the path of the political process towards forming a constitutional committee, according to what Russia and Turkey with Syrian refusal of the committee’s outputs that are inconsistent with the determinants of Syrian patriotism, especially those that include the participation of opposition cells in the administration of the country and government. The Act also gives the American president a relatively long period of 180 days to approve the sanctions, and consequently reaching its results, for Washington to put the ball in the Moscow stadium , which has to coordinate with the United States to reach a final settlement in Syria, that realizes the American and Israeli interests.
American moves are worrisome in appearance and content. Reaching regional and international bases and selectively merging them with considerations of interests. Washington realized that its ability has become difficult to achieve or apply its theories of expansion and influence, and what reinforces this matter, is that the West also realized after centuries of political, military and economic domination, that the search for new equations has become necessary in light of the American confusion, calls for instability and tampering with the outlines of all regional and international tracks. But the majority of countries aspire to a more just international order, built on the basis of true respect for international relations, hence Russia seeks to formulate regional and international equations that achieve strategic stability, taking into account Washington's ability and tools to temporarily disrupt the political solutions in Syria, as well as the political investment for some of the failed cards, such as the remnants of the terrorist factions. The American and Turkish cards fell in Syria, which gave a wide margin to the Syrian state and its allies to formulate new equations, and circumvent the American-Turkish strategy towards the scene of northeastern Syria even after the implementation of the American Act because the confrontation is imminent to confirm the failure of the policies of the Washington axis in Syria, from here it seems clear, that most of the regional and international powers have to recalculate their accounts towards Syria, and engineer their equations from a realistic perspective. Today, what has been achieved in liberating the land from terrorist attacks and Turkish ambitions is one of the major defeats of the other project, and a great victory for this front that defends and confronts terrorism, which is a major and extremely important development at the political, military and financial levels for the Syrian people.
Especially as the Syrian army directed multiple strikes on the content and targets of the United States and its allies, as well as the restoration of areas of great importance and vitality, and put the remaining pawns of the forces of evil and terrorism within narrow geographical boundaries, which means, in the strategic logic of the Syrian state, that the American-backed Ottoman dream project in north Syria has been trimming its nails, in addition to engineering a political and economic reality through the return of international roads and the revival of the Syrian economy, but despite this, the Syrian state realizes that the size of international and regional contradictions regarding the Syrian issue remains in its essence a gateway to complications and challenges that may be prolonged or advanced grate. The political and military realities imposed by the Syrian state along the Syrian geography are many and profound, and it is no longer possible to allow the re-activation of theories of political investment in the context of the war on Syria, so it is clear that the Syrian decision regarding the complete liberation of the Syrian geography from terrorism is inevitable, despite all Washington's endeavors and presence in the Syrian scene and its unlimited margin in the criteria of deals and the issuance of laws and conditional penalties, the facts have become clear to Syria, Russia and Iran.
The article does not necessarily express the opinion of the agency.