Throughout the years of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's rule, tension was the dominant feature of Turkey's relations with the Arab countries in light of Ankara's political and military interventions in the affairs of most countries. Much like the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Egypt.
With his re-election again, many are wondering if Erdogan decided to continue his conciliatory policies with the countries of the region? Or will he turn once again on himself and practice hostile policies?
And to talk about trying to draw the expected policies of Erdogan and the Turkish state towards countries such as Egypt, Tunisia and Libya, ANHA’s agency met with a number of Arab experts.
Erdogan and Tunisia after the Ghannouchi trial
The Tunisian political analyst, Abd al-Jalil Maali, believes that "the congratulations received by the Turkish President, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, after his victory in the recent presidential elections in Turkey, from many Islamic personalities and currents from various Arab and Islamic worlds, suggest what Erdogan represents to these currents and groups, and suggest Also, the hopes that these groups place on the Turkish president winning a new term.
He told our agency: "In Tunisia, the Turkish president received congratulations via a post on social media from the head of the Tunisian Ennahda Movement, Rashid Ghannouchi," noting that "this congratulation, which may seem normal in diplomatic norms, raises questions about the impact of Erdogan's victory on the situation in Tunisia in particular." In light of his close relations with the leader of the Ennahda Movement, Rashid Ghannouchi.
He continued, "The reality is that this influence must not be read or approximated according to the connections between the two men only, but rather it must be placed at the heart of the internal coordinates of both countries on the one hand, and take into account the regional and international changes on the other hand."
According to the researcher, "In looking at the situation in Tunisia, we find that Tunisian President Kais Saied succeeded in clipping the nails of the Ennahda movement, by subjecting a large number of its leaders to a series of trials, isolating the movement from its political environment, and exposing its popular limitations, and perhaps the shrinking of the popular movements of the opposition National Salvation Front ( (which Ennahda represents as its main front) is evidence that the front and the Ennahda movement were unable to call the street to their opposition narratives.
On the Turkish side, the Tunisian researcher believes that "Erdogan will be doomed, in his new era, to continue the path that he started in the last two years, and is based on building bridges of communication with the most important regional powers in the region, especially Egypt and Saudi Arabia, and perhaps this is the new path that he is betting on. Erdogan, in order to revitalize the Turkish economy in crisis and save the Turkish lira from depreciation, requires him to continue his approach in dealing with the Brotherhood in a way that achieves his interests after the restoration of relations with Egypt and the Arab Gulf states.
Maali believes that "according to these data, Erdogan will be forced to suffice with some expressions of condemnation, preoccupation, and questioning the fate of Ghannouchi without putting pressure on President Saeed," revealing that "Erdogan tried to make contact with the Tunisian president if Ghannouchi was arrested, but Tunisian sources confirmed that Saeed did not respond to these attempts.
The researcher indicates that from a regional and international point of view, Erdogan will be preoccupied with restoring the economic situation, and he will be forced to provide evidence that the disengagement from the Brotherhood elements and groups, which is the line on which the Arab countries stand, on whose support and investments Erdogan is betting, and we have no doubt that he will weigh the cost of continuing his support for the Brotherhood elements in exchange for what the exhausted Turkish economy expects from him.
The Tunisian political analyst concludes by emphasizing that "Erdogan's victory in the recent presidential elections will have limited effects on the Tunisian internal situation, given the overlapping of the internal data of Tunisia and Turkey, with the regional data in recent years."
Egypt and the sensitivity of the "Turkish Century"
The Egyptian writer and political analyst, Ibrahim Shaaban, considered that the restoration of relations and the exchange of ambassadors between Egypt and Turkey was a great gain, especially for Turkey in the region.
Shaaban pointed out, in an interview with ANHA’s agency, that "Turkey today has a great opportunity with Egypt to restore warmth to its relations in all fields, especially economic ones, while continuing its steps towards closing the file of the Brotherhood on its lands and the platforms hostile to Egypt completely," noting that " Turkey is more in need of restoring relations with Egypt, as it is a gateway to all Arab countries.
Regarding Erdogan's statements - after the elections, in which he said, "We will start the Turkish century" - the writer and political analyst asked what he meant by the Turkish century? He said: "It is an ambiguous phrase, and it will inevitably raise sensitivities. If it means an internal Turkish renaissance and revival, reforming the economy, the Turkish lira, inflation and other problems of his country, then there is nothing wrong with it."
He continued, "But if the word, according to its usual meaning, 'Turkish century' means expansion and influence, and it comes at the expense of others, especially the Arab countries, then this is completely unacceptable."
Regarding the Egyptian-Turkish relations, the Egyptian political analyst believes that "the biggest success for them will be through conducting a comprehensive review of Turkish foreign policies, stopping the Turkish hand from Syria, Iraq and the Kurds, and building a positive Arab policy. This will also be a great gain and will increase confidence with Egypt, based on its role." The usual and pivotal Arabist in the Arab League.
In response to whether Erdogan will restore his negative positions with Egypt, Shaaban believes that "the Turkish president has learned the lesson of 10 years."
Libya between Cairo and Turkey
In turn, the Libyan researcher Ahmed Orabi believes that Libya is a pivotal issue for Ankara and Cairo, which have agreed recently, indicating that Erdogan’s victory will have repercussions on the Libyan crisis, especially in light of the conflict over gas and oil in the eastern Mediterranean, and Turkey’s attempt to pull the rug out from under the feet of the alliance. The trio - the Greek, the Cypriot, the Egyptian - by drawing Cairo back to it.
He told our agency: "Turkey supports the forces of the national unity government stationed in the capital, Tripoli, and Turkey has long-term commercial interests in Libya," pointing out that "the Turks, in general, view their country's role in the Mediterranean with great interest, amid the ongoing conflict with Greece." And therefore, they consider that the Turkish-Libyan agreement concluded by Recep Tayyip Erdogan three years ago is in the interest of Turkey, confirming its presence and protecting its interests in the Mediterranean, and its presence as an ally in Tripoli in the West.