​​​​​​​AFP: Erdogan is unlikely to alter his approach

Analysts ruled out that Erdogan would change his approach, especially after the calm stances he issued to Europe, and his promises of judicial reforms in an effort to reassure investors in light of the Turkish economic meltdown.

Agence France-Presse (AFP) said in a report that "the foreign policy of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan which has intensified since 2016 is a truce addressed to Europe, a rift between Ankara and its Western allies, and an exacerbation of the economic situation in his country. In addition, the analysts rule out that he will change his approach."

In its prepared report entitled "Erdogan continues with his offensive diplomacy despite its economic costs," the agency added: "With the intensification of the economic crisis, Erdogan issued in recent days calm positions directed at Europe, confirming that the future of Turkey is inseparable from the future of the old continent. While Ankara's operations which has been deploying forces in various regions from Libya to Syria via the eastern Mediterranean are enraging the West."

It said: "If these displays of power are popular in Turkey, they may crowed out any prospective investors, while Turkey is in dire need of external funds at present."

The agency quoted the Head of Edam Research Center in Istanbul, Sinan Ulgen, as explaining that Erdogan's foreign policy has led to a tense relationship between Turkey and its two main economic partners; the European Union and the United States, and said that "the increasing geopolitical risks constitute pressure on the lira and have an impact on the next direct investment movement from abroad."

The agency believes that the threat of European sanctions that may send the Turkish economy tumbling down a precipice, and the defeat of U.S. President Donald Trump, with whom Erdogan had a personal relationship, in the presidential elections convinced the Turkish president to lower his tone in recent weeks.

The agency touched on Erdogan's promises at the beginning of November to carry out judicial reforms, and confirmed that it was "his endeavor to reassure investors."

The agency also finds that Democrat Joe Biden's victory in the U.S. presidential election may pose new problems for Ankara which is subject to U.S. sanctions after it purchased Russian S-400 missile systems.

While Sinam Adar of the Center for Applied Studies on Turkey in Berlin explained that after the 2016 coup d'état attempt, Erdogan had the impression that "Western partners had abandoned Ankara." She added that the Turkish president felt that "he could no longer trust Europe and the United States to enhance Turkey's security, which prompted him, in her view, to undertake his unilateral initiatives.

Turkey has spent hundreds of millions of euros in recent years to develop its military capabilities, which in Sinam Adar's opinion is a factor that enabled his increasing hostility.

The agency stated that the Turkish lira has lost about a quarter of its value against the dollar since the beginning of the year, and the diplomatic tension has worsened it, especially with France a few months ago.

D.H


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